Abstract Natural hybridization threatens a substantial number of plant and animal species with extinction, but extinction risk has been difficult to evaluate in the absence of a quantitative assessment of risk factors. We investigated a number of ecological parameters likely to affect extinction risk, through an individual-based model simulating the life cycle of two hybridizing annual plant species. All parameters tested, ranging from population size to variance in pollen-tube growth rates, affected extinction risk. The sensitivity of each parameter varied dramatically across parameter sets, but, overall, the competitive ability, initial frequency, and selfing rate of the native taxon had the strongest effect on extinction. In addition, prezygotic reproductive barriers had a stronger influence on extinction rates than did postzygotic barriers. A stable hybrid zone was possible only when habitat differentiation was included in the model. When there was no habitat differentiation, either one of the parental species or the hybrids eventually displaced the other two taxa. The simulations demonstrated that hybridization is perhaps the most rapidly acting genetic threat to endangered species, with extinction often taking place in less than five generations. The simulation model was also applied to naturally hybridizing species pairs for which considerable genetic and ecological information is available. The predictions from these "worked examples" are in close agreement with observed outcomes and further suggest that an endemic cordgrass species is threatened by hybridization. These simulations provide guidance concerning the kinds of data required to evaluate extinction risk and possible conservation strategies. Journal Information In the past decade Conservation Biology has become the most influential and frequently cited journal in its field. Nature calls this title "required reading for ecologists throughout the world." The journal continues to publish groundbreaking papers and remains instrumental in defining the key issues contributing to the study and preservation of species and habitats. The Society for Conservation Biology and its members appreciate the increasing and alarming rate of species and habitat loss in our world and remain committed to the movement of conservation biology to the forefront of the sciences. Only by understanding the scientific basis of conservation can we effectively confront the extinction crisis. JSTOR provides a digital archive of the print version of Conservation Biology. The electronic version of Conservation Biology is available at http://www.interscience.wiley.com. Authorized users may be able to access the full text articles at this site. Publisher Information Wiley is a global provider of content and content-enabled workflow solutions in areas of scientific, technical, medical, and scholarly research; professional development; and education. Our core businesses produce scientific, technical, medical, and scholarly journals, reference works, books, database services, and advertising; professional books, subscription products, certification and training services and online applications; and education content and services including integrated online teaching and learning resources for undergraduate and graduate students and lifelong learners. Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. has been a valued source of information and understanding for more than 200 years, helping people around the world meet their needs and fulfill their aspirations. Wiley has published the works of more than 450 Nobel laureates in all categories: Literature, Economics, Physiology or Medicine, Physics, Chemistry, and Peace. Wiley has partnerships with many of the world’s leading societies and publishes over 1,500 peer-reviewed journals and 1,500+ new books annually in print and online, as well as databases, major reference works and laboratory protocols in STMS subjects. With a growing open access offering, Wiley is committed to the widest possible dissemination of and access to the content we publish and supports all sustainable models of access. Our online platform, Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) is one of the world’s most extensive multidisciplinary collections of online resources, covering life, health, social and physical sciences, and humanities. Rights & Usage This item is part of a JSTOR Collection. |
